Comptabilité et marketing

Prediction of Bank Indonesia Interest Rates By Analyzing Inflation Rate in Indonesia From 2003 – 2016

Abstract

Dodi Irwan Siregar

Inflation is a tendency to increase the price level continuously, which can affect individuals, businesses, and government, while the amount of capital goods demanded (investment) is highly dependent on the interest rate (interest) as a measure of the cost of funds used to finance the investment. That is why if interest rates are high, then investment or projects are less compared to when interest rates are low. This study uses simple linear regression analysis to predict and predict changes in the value of certain variables when other variables change. Correlation is one of the statistical analysis techniques used to find the relationship of how strong the relationship between one variable with other variables that are quantitative. By using a linearity test where f count > f tabel is 26.70046 > 3.885 Then, Ho is rejected. This means that a simple linear regression analysis can be used to predict Bank Indonesia interest rate fluctuations by analyzing the inflation rate in Indonesia. Obtained a simple linear regression equation is Y = 4.4292 + 0.479694X, the relationship of the independent variables and the dependent variable above is 0.830618 with the relationship is superior correlation, the scale ranges from 0.76 to 1.00. ie where t count > t table = 5.1672 > 2.179, then Ho is rejected, meaning that there is a large (significant) influence between the BI interest rate on the inflation rate in Indonesia, the higher the BI interest rate, the greater the inflation in the State of Indonesia.