Journal de biométrie et biostatistique

Bayesian Sir Modeling in the Case of Undocumented Infectious Individuals of COVID 19

Abstract

Kuntoro Kuntoro

Covid 19 that began in the end 0f 2019 has spread rapidly across continents in a short of time. This event makes most countries do not report and record the disease properly. There is considerable number of undocumented infectious individuals that should be considered when we want to estimate the Susceptible, Infectious, and Removal (SIR) parameters and to predict the future cases. The covid 19 data obtained from City of Surabaya were analyzed using Bayesian SIR modeling by BaySIR package in RStudio. The estimated and predicted medians of SIR compartment tend to decrease over time. The estimated and predicted medians of effective reproduction number tend to decrease over time. The results depend on the assumptions of SIR model to use such as the dynamic of covid 19, local government policies, and individual behavior in the community.