Journal de l'économie mondiale

Stock Returns in the USA and the Effect of Macroeconomic Variable Uncertainty

Abstract

Michiel Vereycken

Stock market returns have long been a subject of interest for investors and economists alike. The United States has one of the most developed and dynamic stock markets in the world and its movements can have far-reaching effects on the global economy. While many factors can influence stock market returns, one significant factor that has received increased attention in recent years is macroeconomic variable uncertainty. Macroeconomic variable uncertainty refers to the degree of unpredictability or ambiguity surrounding key economic indicators such as inflation, interest rates, and GDP growth. When these variables are uncertain, investors may be less willing to take risks, which can lead to increased volatility in stock prices. Uncertainty can arise from a variety of sources, including changes in government policies, geopolitical events, and fluctuations in commodity prices.